Because guessing the future is challenging, I seldom attempt it. What I try to do instead is to notice the present.
For example, having spotted how the first Black Lives Matter era of 2014–2016 unleashed rioting, murder, and terrorism in cities where it triumphed over the police, within days of the death of George Floyd I was hollering that the second Black Lives Matter era was turning into an even bigger disaster for America’s cities than the last one…
So I replicated Third Way’s analysis of 22 states plus the District of Columbia and found that murder was up 31 percent in 2020 over 2019, by far the worst annual increase in the Big Sleep in the six decades for which there have been reliable national records…
In other words, murder has plateaued at a new normal, about 40 percent higher than when Black Lives Matter was hatched at Ferguson in 2014. Read more…
