As summer came to a close and November’s mid-term approached, a narrative began to build suggesting that Democrats could retain the House or limit their losses to just a few seats. That was largely driven by political sites like Nate Silver’s that produce garbage-in, garbage-out election models that completely ignored the fundamentals of the electorate.
But as I’ve said many times, ignoring the fundamentals in favor of historically awful polling is foolhardy, and evidence is now mounting that the House of Representatives is now a lost cause for the Democratic Party. The good vibes have been replaced by dogfights in districts that aren’t even supposed to be in play, and there’s every reason to think things get worse as election day approaches.
For example, in Rhode Island’s 2nd District, Republican Allan Fung leads Democrat Seth Magaziner by 8 points. Read more…
