According to a recent survey conducted by Stack Data Strategy and published by Politico, findings suggest that if the 2024 presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump, seen as the frontrunner for the GOP, would secure victory in the electoral college against President Joe Biden. However, in a hypothetical matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Biden would dominate, securing a significant win over DeSantis.
The survey’s results revealed a potential victory for Trump over Biden in the electoral college, with Trump amassing 292 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 246 in this hypothetical rematch scenario. Conversely, in a hypothetical DeSantis versus Biden contest, Biden would triumph decisively, claiming 359 electoral college votes to DeSantis’s 179.
Notably, the poll indicated a projected win for Trump in four crucial swing states that Biden had secured in the 2020 election: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that Trump had previously carried in the 2016 election. The breakdown of state preferences from the survey showed that voters in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin slightly favored Trump over Biden by small margins.
Arizona voters leaned toward Trump by 48.7% to Biden’s 47.3%, while Georgia voters showed a preference for Trump at 50.3% versus Biden’s 47.1%. Similarly, Pennsylvania voters favored Trump by 49.6% compared to Biden’s 47.3%, and Wisconsin voters leaned toward Trump with 48.9% versus Biden’s 47.9%.
Despite these trends, the survey indicated a narrow lead for Biden over Trump in Michigan by 0.7% and Nevada by 1.4%.
The survey encompassed 15,205 registered US voters and was conducted between October 13 and November 3, providing insight into the shifting landscape ahead of the 2024 presidential election. This data arrives less than a year preceding the presidential election and two months before the Iowa Republican caucus, a pivotal event in the election cycle.
Within the Republican primary field, which has seen a significant number of contenders, the departure of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott was announced, narrowing the field to include Trump, DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
Trump’s platform for a potential second term encompasses various promises, including terminating welfare and government benefits for undocumented immigrants, implementing the death penalty for child traffickers, labeling drug cartels as foreign terrorists, and completing the border wall that was initiated during his first term, among other policy objectives.