A recent poll released by The New York Times and Siena College has raised significant concerns for President Joe Biden as the nation approaches the 2024 general election. Regarded as the top-ranking poll by 538’s pollster ratings, the survey indicates a widespread belief that the United States is on the “wrong direction” under Biden, with 62% of men and 68% of women sharing this sentiment.
In a hypothetical scenario where the 2024 presidential election occurred today, the poll suggests that 48% would vote for former President Donald Trump, while only 43% would choose Biden. Moreover, 48% anticipate Trump’s victory, with only 39% expecting Biden to win. The findings reveal that Biden’s policies receive mixed reviews, with 18% feeling personally helped, 43% perceiving harm, while Trump’s policies receive more positive feedback, as 40% believe they personally benefited, and 25% felt harmed.
Trump maintains a substantial lead with white voters (13 points) and Latino voters (6 points), while Biden’s share of the black vote has seen a 20% decline compared to 2020, dropping to 66%. Even among young voters, traditionally a stronghold for Democrats, Biden’s lead is merely 12 points. Notably, 44% of respondents claimed to have voted for Biden in 2020, while only 34% reported voting for Trump.
Within the Democratic primary voters, opinions on Biden as the party’s nominee are evenly split, with 46% in favor and 45% opposed. The poll also gauged approval ratings, revealing that 17% strongly approve of Biden’s job performance, 19% somewhat approve, while 47% strongly disapprove, resulting in a net approval rating of -25%. Trump’s net favorability rating stands at -10%, and Biden’s at -21%, with Vice President Kamala Harris at -19%.
In response to the poll, Biden Campaign Communications Director Michael Tyler dismissed its accuracy, asserting that polling consistently overestimates Trump and underestimates Biden. Tyler emphasized that the campaign focuses on actual voter behavior, highlighting their strength and unity against a perceived weak, cash-strapped, and divided Republican party led by Trump. The conservative perspective acknowledges the potential limitations of polling accuracy and underscores the importance of actual voter behavior in determining electoral outcomes.
