As the 2024 election approaches, former President Donald Trump’s burgeoning support among black Americans is garnering attention, signaling a notable shift in traditionally Democratic-leaning demographics. The historically pivotal black vote, which has predominantly favored the Democratic Party for half a century, showed Trump winning 8 percent of black voters in the 2020 election cycle. Recent GenForward polling unveiled a surge in Trump’s support among black Americans:
The survey indicated a striking rise in backing for Trump within the black community, with 17 percent expressing current support for the former president. Moreover, 20 percent of black respondents expressed a preference for “someone else” over either Trump or Biden, underscoring a notable diversion from the entrenched allegiance to the Democratic Party.
Trump’s resonance has also extended among Hispanic voters, reflecting a 4-point increase from the 2020 cycle, with a substantial 36 percent of Latinos voicing support for the former president. Cathy Cohen, the founder of the GenForward project and a political science professor at the University of Chicago, suggested that Trump’s perceived “hypermasculinity” might draw increased support from black men, contributing to a potential surge in backing for Trump in future elections.
The polling, conducted from November 8 to 30, surveyed 3,448 eligible voters, with a 3-point margin of error, affirming a growing trend in Trump’s appeal among minority voters. Concurrently, President Joe Biden faces a waning support base among black and Hispanic voters, as indicated by recent polling. The New York Times/Siena College survey from November delineated a substantial erosion in Biden’s support among nonwhite voters:
Only 72 percent of black voters remain supportive of Biden, while merely 47 percent of Hispanic voters express ongoing approval, representing a significant decline from the 2020 election figures. Democrats have experienced consistent losses among black and Hispanic voters over the past decade, with Biden encountering the most pronounced challenge among nonwhite voters since Walter Mondale in 1984.
Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ chief political analyst, dissected the rapid deterioration of Biden’s support among nonwhite voters and anticipated the potential advantage Trump could gain from these defections. Cohn’s analysis revealed a stark contrast in Biden’s lead among different segments of nonwhite voters based on their midterm election participation:
Biden retains a commanding lead of 81-8 among Black voters who turned out in the 2022 midterms. However, among those who skipped the midterms, his lead diminishes to 62-14. Similarly, Biden’s support among Hispanics who voted in the midterms stands at 53-33, compared to a meager 42-37 lead among those who did not vote.
Amid this shift, some voters who previously supported Biden, mainly nonwhite voters, have either defected to Trump or are now undecided or opting not to vote. The decline in Biden’s support is particularly evident among less politically engaged voters, potentially indicating their inclination to abstain from the upcoming election, thereby concentrating his vulnerability within this subset of the electorate.
