According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey, former President Trump holds a lead over President Biden in six out of seven battleground states, signaling widespread dissatisfaction with the U.S. economy and the incumbent’s performance. Even with third-party candidates included in the race, Trump enjoys leads ranging from 2 to 8 percentage points in crucial states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Similar trends were observed in head-to-head matchups between Trump and Biden.
The survey reveals a significant level of discontent with Biden among voters who are expected to play a pivotal role in determining the election outcome, particularly as one-party dominance has diminished the political competitiveness of many states. Biden’s success in flipping key states in the industrial North in 2020, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which had previously supported Trump in 2016, was noteworthy. He also secured narrow victories in Georgia and Arizona, states with evolving demographics where Democrats had previously struggled.
Nevada and North Carolina are also considered battlegrounds, with Biden’s margin of victory narrowing in Nevada despite his win there in 2020, and North Carolina being one of the states where Trump secured the slimmest victory. Both campaigns are expected to allocate substantial resources to advertising and turnout efforts in these states, which collectively contribute 93 electoral votes, crucial for securing victory in the presidential election.
Voters expressed their dissatisfaction with Biden’s job performance across the surveyed states, with negative sentiments outweighing positive ones by a significant margin. There was a notable contrast in how respondents perceived Biden and Trump’s physical and mental fitness to handle presidential responsibilities, with 48 percent favoring Trump compared to just 28 percent for Biden.
Conducted from March 17 to 24, the survey involved 4,200 voters, with 600 participants from each of the battleground states. The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 1.5 percentage points, while individual state results have a margin of error of 4 points. These findings underscore the challenging landscape facing the Biden administration and the Democratic Party as they gear up for the upcoming election, with Trump maintaining a strong presence in key battlegrounds.
