In a recent poll targeting young registered voters, an intriguing trend surfaced: former President Donald Trump received higher support than President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 electoral faceoff. According to the New York Times/Siena poll, 49 percent of registered voters aged 18 to 29 indicated they would cast their ballot for Trump if the election were held today, while 43 percent favored Biden. Interestingly, likely voters within the same age bracket leaned towards Biden by a margin of 47 percent to 44 percent for Trump. This divergence between registered and likely voters reflected the broader outcome of the poll, wherein Trump outpaced Biden by 2 percentage points among registered voters, while Biden held a similar lead among likely voters.
The survey encompassed 1,016 registered voters, attributing a margin of error of 3.5 percent for the entire poll and 3.7 percent for likely voters. Notably, the findings showcased a lukewarm reception for President Biden, with only 37 percent of all respondents approving of his performance as president, while a significant 58 percent expressed disapproval. Even among likely voters, Biden faced an approval rating of 39 percent alongside a substantial 57 percent disapproval. In contrast, Trump enjoyed a more favorable rating among registered voters, with both candidates sharing a similar net favorability score among likely voters.
This poll emerges in the wake of reports from The Washington Post detailing Biden’s frustrations over his declining poll numbers, which have exhibited a downward trajectory since November, depicting Trump surpassing Biden on both national and swing-state levels. A Wall Street Journal poll earlier in the month unveiled Trump holding a 4-point lead over Biden in a direct matchup and a 6-point lead in a ballot inclusive of third-party candidates. Nevertheless, the same poll suggested that in a head-to-head scenario with only Trump and Biden, the latter would still prevail by a 1-point margin, even if Trump were to receive a felony conviction.
These numbers reflect a shifting landscape, demonstrating the potential volatility in voter preferences, particularly among young registered voters, which could bear significance as the 2024 elections loom closer.