Donald Trump and Joe Biden are neck and neck in a New Hampshire poll, causing significant concern for the Democrat candidate in a state where Democrats have historically won every presidential election since 2000.
The NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll revealed that 36.6 percent of New Hampshire voters support Trump, while 36.5 percent back Biden, with 14.6 percent favoring Robert F. Kennedy Jr. An additional 12.4 percent indicated they wouldn’t vote for any of these three candidates.
Undeclared voters showed a nearly even split among the options, with Biden receiving 27.5 percent support, Trump at 24.2 percent, Kennedy at 23.2 percent, and the option for none of these candidates at 25.1 percent. This distribution highlights a significant challenge for Biden, who must secure the undecided and independent vote to maintain a competitive edge.
Trump enjoys stronger support within his party, with 84.2 percent of Republicans indicating they would vote for him, compared to 80.7 percent of Democrats who said they would vote for Biden. Kennedy is attracting more Democrat voters, with 11.2 percent of Democrats supporting him, while only 6.6 percent of Republicans said the same.
Age demographics also play a crucial role, with Trump leading among all age groups under 65, particularly in the 35-44 age group, where he has a 13.3 percent lead. Conversely, Biden leads among voters over 65, capturing 52.2 percent of their votes compared to Trump’s 26.8 percent.
This survey, conducted between May 15 and 20 with 862 registered voters and a margin of error of 3.33 percent, signals a potential shift in New Hampshire’s political landscape. Biden risks becoming the first Democrat presidential candidate to lose the state since Al Gore in 2000.
Jonathan Klingler of Praecones Analytica commented to the NH Journal, “While registered voters of both parties are largely united around their nominee, independent/undeclared voters are splitting their support in four statistically indistinguishable ways: between Biden, Trump, Kennedy, and other unnamed candidates.” He added, “Compared to exit polls from the 2020 presidential election, independent/undeclared voters in New Hampshire demonstrate significantly lower support for Biden, as Biden won around 60 percent of these voters in 2020, compared to around a quarter if the election were held today.”
These findings underscore the volatility and unpredictability of the upcoming election, with Biden’s diminished support among independent voters posing a serious challenge to his re-election bid.
