A recent Suffolk poll of black voters in two key swing states spells trouble for Joe Biden’s re-election bid. The survey highlights a significant erosion of support for Biden among black voters since 2020, a trend that could have serious implications for the upcoming election.
In Pennsylvania, Biden secures only 56% of the black vote, while Donald Trump garners 11%. Third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, collectively capture 16%. Similarly, in Michigan, Biden’s support stands at 55%, with Trump receiving 15% and third-party candidates taking another 15%.
These numbers are a stark contrast to 2020, where Biden received 92% of the black vote in both states. The decline is steep, with Biden losing 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 22 points in Michigan. The primary reasons for this drop, according to respondents, include dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance, concerns about his age and mental sharpness, and unease about his stance on international conflicts, including his support for Israel.
Despite having a net positive favorability rating among black voters in both states, Biden’s current numbers are anemic compared to former President Barack Obama’s ratings, which were overwhelmingly positive. This suggests a growing disenchantment among a demographic that has traditionally been a stronghold for the Democratic Party.
Trump, on the other hand, has seen an increase in support among black voters. He is up six points in Michigan and eight points in Pennsylvania compared to his performance in 2020. While these numbers might seem modest, even small shifts in voter support can have a significant impact in tightly contested states. Notably, Trump draws more support from black men than black women, indicating a gender gap in his appeal.
The poll underscores the importance of continued outreach and engagement with black voters. While Trump has made gains, ensuring these gains translate into votes on election day will require sustained effort. Both candidates must recognize the critical role that black voters will play in determining the outcome of the 2024 election and adjust their strategies accordingly.
