Senate Democrats are downplaying concerns that President Joe Biden will be a liability in the upcoming November elections, even as the party’s most vulnerable incumbents distance themselves from him.
Biden’s low approval ratings, driven by his age and poor handling of the economy, have raised alarms among party operatives warning that former President Donald Trump could win if Biden remains on the Democratic ticket. These fears also affect down-ballot races, as the party tries to maintain its tenuous control of the Senate.
Ordinarily, the party in the White House hopes to benefit from the coattails of their incumbent president. This cycle, however, they face the prospect of having to outperform Biden, with polls consistently showing him lagging in nearly every swing state.
Senate Democrats generally avoid speculating on whether Biden will drag down vulnerable incumbents, instead framing control of the Senate as a matter of candidate quality. “We have superior incumbents and candidates running against highly flawed Republican candidates,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “So, I’m confident we’re going to win.”
Others dispute the idea that Biden is a weak candidate altogether. “Every special election and the midterm elections, polling has predicted disaster for Democrats. And the results have ended up being far better than polling would have suggested,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a key Biden ally.
In this cycle, Senate candidates appear to be running ahead of Biden in key states. For example, in Nevada, where Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is up for reelection, she is tied with her expected Republican rival, even as Trump leads Biden there by 13 points. Rosen’s colleague, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), cast doubt on the polling and predicted that Biden would win Nevada, citing past close races that Democrats have ultimately won.
Nonetheless, Biden trails the party’s Senate incumbents from Arizona to Wisconsin. Vulnerable Democrats, none more so than Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in deep-red Montana, have sought opportunities to break with Biden. Tester recently released a memo highlighting his “long-standing track record standing up to President Biden,” which Republicans quickly seized upon as an election-year pivot.
Meanwhile, those in purple states have distanced themselves from Biden on select wedge issues, including the war in Gaza. Emboldened by progressive members of his party, Biden has increasingly pushed back against Israel’s military operations, while in-cycle senators, such as Rosen and Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), have maintained their support for the Jewish state.
Republicans have attempted to tie these and other Senate Democrats to Biden as part of their election pitch, calling them “rubberstamps” for his agenda. However, Casey, facing a serious challenge from Trump-backed Republican David McCormick, argued that incumbents can set themselves up well for reelection by effectively communicating their records to voters.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) acknowledged some correlation between the top of the ticket and Senate races but predicted the two would “move independently.” He cited the lack of synergy between Trump and McCormick in Pennsylvania, despite the former president’s significant influence in the state.
The Biden campaign insists that running against Trump’s record and emphasizing Biden’s achievements will help Democrats maintain control of the White House. “Joe Biden created 15 million jobs, capped the price of insulin at $35, and made healthcare more affordable than ever,” said Biden campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg. “That record of historic results for the American people is what the President and Democrats across the country will be running on in November.”
Biden allies expect the polls to tighten as Election Day approaches. “There’s a lot of folks trying to dampen enthusiasm for Democrats by pumping out all kinds of polls,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). “We’re gonna work hard no matter what.”
Some Republicans see Trump’s prospects favorably. “I think Donald Trump’s gonna win,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who has previously clashed with Trump. “It’s looking like Biden is toast.”
