Senate Republicans are issuing a stern warning to New York Judge Juan Merchan, urging him not to sentence former President Trump to prison or house arrest. They fear any such action could hinder the GOP frontrunner’s ability to campaign effectively ahead of the November election.
The path to appeal for Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records could take months, and legal experts doubt the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court will intervene. This places significant discretion in the hands of Judge Merchan, who has a range of sentencing options from probation to imprisonment.
Merchan, who has been praised by some legal experts for his handling of the case, is set to sentence Trump on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. GOP senators are anxious about this, as they believe the judge has shown bias against Trump’s legal team throughout the trial.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, criticized the potential for a harsh sentence, calling it a “further abuse of power.” He expressed concern over the perceived politicization of the judiciary, stating, “I’m very troubled by what I see in the way the courts have been weaponized.”
Republican senators warn that any sentence affecting Trump’s campaign mobility could undermine voters’ confidence in the fairness of the 2024 election. Although legal experts suggest it would be unusual for Trump to receive a prison sentence for a class E felony, the unpredictability of the trial’s proceedings has left GOP lawmakers uneasy.
Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) stated it would be “foolish” for the judge to sentence Trump to jail or house arrest. He criticized the trial’s fairness and suggested that a tough sentence would only strengthen support for Trump among his base.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) shared his surprise over the conviction and expressed uncertainty about the upcoming sentencing. He emphasized that any restrictive sentence must align with precedents set by similar cases to avoid appearing politically motivated.
Trump’s legal team is expected to push for deferring any sentence until after his appeals, which could extend beyond Election Day. Analysis indicates that only 1 in 10 cases of first-degree falsification of business records in New York result in imprisonment, though Judge Merchan’s reputation for being tough on white-collar criminals adds an element of unpredictability.
Trump warned that imprisoning or confining him would reach a “breaking point” with the public, acknowledging the possibility of such outcomes. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) suggested that a prison sentence could ironically bolster Trump’s re-election chances, arguing it might appear as punitive overreach to voters.
Some Republican senators believe the U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately need to intervene, especially if the appeals process extends close to the election. They argue that the Supreme Court’s involvement would be necessary to ensure a fair election process and prevent a politically motivated disruption of the democratic process.
