At Townhall, the question “Is it over?” looms large, referring to the 2024 Republican primary. Despite the early stage, Donald Trump’s impressive victory in Iowa and the latest Saint Anselm College poll of New Hampshire voters after Iowa reveal a potential nail in the coffin for competitors. Trump’s lead in New Hampshire has expanded further, while Nikki Haley’s substantial investment in the Granite State has seen moderate success, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis seems to have faded from the radar. With Super Tuesday on the horizon, the dynamics of the Republican primary are rapidly evolving.
The Saint Anselm College poll, conducted after Trump’s decisive win in Iowa, exhibits his double-digit lead over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary. Notably, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis struggles with single-digit support in the state. The poll considered the recent exits of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy from the 2024 campaign.
Despite adjustments for candidates dropping out, the poll still positions Trump strongly at 52%, marking a seven-point increase from the previous week. Haley also experienced a similar increase, reaching 38%. Conversely, DeSantis remains stagnant at 6%, portraying a potential two-person race in New Hampshire. While Haley gains some traction among voters previously supporting departed candidates, Trump remains unbeatable, surpassing the 50% mark.
Haley’s supporters find solace in the fact that roughly half of the movement as the field thins is favoring her. However, she needs to exhibit more significant momentum to pose a genuine threat to Trump. As the primary progresses, attention turns to South Carolina, her home state, where Trump leads 54-25, presenting a challenging gap for Haley to overcome.
Concerns arise for Ron DeSantis, admired for his accomplishments in Florida, as he lags in single digits in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump’s substantial lead in Florida further complicates DeSantis’s prospects. If DeSantis continues to experience several single-digit finishes, speculation arises about the sustainability of his campaign and donor support, though Republican politics are known for unpredictability. The race remains dynamic, with potential shifts overnight.
